Some statistics related to the Grand Tours

Here's my original question:

In a stage race, how well does a rider's prologue (or first stage) placing predict the rider's final GC placing?

Below are some calculations suggesting an answer to this question, along with a bunch of other statistics on the Grand Tours, data that I just wanted to have in one place.

All races are men's races; I hope to add data for women's races, as soon as I can find a decent source. Click on the year for a scatter plot of the prolog (or stage 1) rankings versus the final GC rankings. (the x-axis represents the prologue placings, and the y-axis represents the final GC placings).

Tour de France

race overall winner (points rank, kom rank) prologue or
stage 1 ranking
of winner
correlation of
final rankings
to prologue
rankings
number of top
20 prologue riders
who finished in
the final GC top 20
percent
finishing
winning time distance (km) winning speed (km/h) winning margin 10th place final time gap lantern rouge time gap points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) KOM (final GC rank) Lantern Rouge Max difference,
prologue to final GC
Winning Team
1995 TdF Miguel Indurain (3,4) 35 0.21 0 61% 92:44:59 3535 39.2 4:35 18:50 3:36:26 Laurent Jalabert(4) Richard Virenque(9)
1996 TdF Bjarne Riis (?,2) 6 0.49 7 65% 95:57:16 3753 39.2 1:41 11:53 3:49:52 Eric Zabel(82) Richard Virenque(3)
1997 TdF Jan Ullrich (6,2) 2 0.14 5 70% 100:30:35 3942 39.2 9:09 32:26 4:26:09 Eric Zabel(66) Richard Virenque(2) Philippe GaumontAngel Casero (147=176-29)
1998 TdF Marco Pantani (10,2) 181 0.26 4 51% 92:49:46 3850 40.08 3:21 17:39 3:12:15 Eric Zabel(62) Christophe Rinero(4) Damion NazonMarco Pantani (180=181-1)
1999 TdF Lance Armstrong (12,5) 1 0.42 7 78% 91:32:16 3687 40.3 7:37 23:10 3:19:09 Eric Zabel(89) Richard Virenque(8) Jacky DurandPaolo Lanfranchi (141=159-18)
2000 TdF Lance Armstrong (11,6) 2 0.41 5 72% 92:33:08 3662 39.55 6:0218:25 3:46:37 Eric Zabel(61) Santiago Botero(7) Olivier PerraudeauJavier Otxoa (150=163-13)
2001 TdF Lance Armstrong (6,4) 3 0.30 7 76% 86:17:28 3453 40.02 6:44 22:38 3:52:17 Eric Zabel(96,3) Laurent Jalabert(19) Jimmy CasperFrancois Simon (145=151-6) Kelme
2002 TdF Lance Armstrong (6,4) 1 0.49 8 81% 82:05:12 3278 39.88 7:17 19:05 3:35:52 Robbie McEwen(130,1) Laurent Jalabert(42) Igor FloresAlexandre Botcharov (132=163-31) ONCE
2003 TdF Lance Armstrong (15,3) 6 0.23 5 75% 83:36:02 3427 40.94 1:01 19:15 4:48:35 Baden Cooke(140,1) Richard Virenque(16,1) Hans De ClercqManuel Beltran (160=175-15) CSC
2004 TdF Lance Armstrong (8,2) 2 0.25 6 79% 83:41:12 3391 40.6 6:19 22:54 3:55:49 Robbie McEwen(122,2) Richard Virenque(15,1) Jimmy Casper Richard Virenque (159=174-15) T-Mobile
2005 TdF Lance Armstrong (8,3) 2 0.26 8 82% 86:15:02 3593 41.7 4:40 16:04 4:20:24 Thor Hushovd(116,0) Michael Rasmussen(7,1) Iker Flores Michael Rasmussen (167=174-7) T-Mobile
2006 TdF Floyd Landis (10,2) 9 0.26 4 79% 89:39:30 3567 40.8 0:57 15:07 4:02:01 Robbie McEwen(116,3) Michael Rasmussen(18,1) Wim Vansevenant Michael Rasmussen (140=158-18) T-Mobile
2007 TdF Alberto Contador (10,2) 15 0.30 4 75% 91.00.26 3547 39.0 0:23 14:25 3:52:54 Tom Boonen(119,2) Mauricio Soler(11,1) Wim Vansevenant David Arroyo (140=158-18) Discovery
2008 TdF Carlos Sastre (22,2) 14 0.48 8 81% 87.52.52 3559 40.5 0:58 9:05 3:55:45 Oscar Freire (70,1) Bernhard Kohl (3,0) Wim Vansevenant Koos Moerenhout (123=157-34) CSC
2009 TdF Alberto Contador (3,9) 2 0.51 9 87% 85.48.35 3459.5 40.31 4:11 14:25 4:16:27 Thor Hushovd (106,1) Franco Pellizotti (37,0) Yauheni Hutarovich Alexandre Botcharov (139=157-18) Astana
2010 TdF Alberto Contador (11,4) 6 0.22 5 87% 91.58.48 3642 39.6 0:39 12:02 4:27:03 Alessandro Petacchi (150,2) Anthony Charteau (44,0) Adriano Malori Adriano Malori (158=170-12) Radio Shack
2011 TdF Cadel Evans (4,4) 2 0.34 6 84% 86:12:22 3430 39.8 1:34 10:11 3:57:43 Mark Cavendish (130,5) Samuel Sanchez (6,1) Fabio Sabatini Egoi Martinez (151=185-34) Garmin-Cervelo
2012 TdF Bradley Wiggins (6,15) 2 0.23 7 77% 87:34:47 3496.9 39.9 3:21 17:17 3:57:36 Peter Sagan (42,3) Thomas Voeckler (26,2) Jimmy Engoulvent Egoi Martinez (166=183-17) RadioShack-Nissan
2013 TdF Chris Froome (9,2) 41 0.15 0 86% 83:56:40 3404 40.5 4:20 17:39 4:27:55 Peter Sagan (82,3) Nairo Quintana (2,1) Svein Tuft Bauke Mollema (189=195-6) Team Saxo-Tinkoff

Vuelta de Espana

race overall winner (points rank, kom rank) prologue or
stage 1 ranking
of winner
correlation of
final rankings
to prologue
rankings
number of top
20 prologue riders
who finished in
the final GC top 20
percent
finishing
winning time distance (km) winning speed (km/h) winning margin 10th place final time gap lantern rouge time gap points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) KOM (final GC rank) Lantern Rouge Max difference,
prologue to final GC
Winning Team
1999 Vuelta Jan Ullrich 21 0.09 2 61% 89:52:03 3548 39.488 4:15 18:15 4:14:44 Frank Vandenbroucke(12) Jose M. Jimenez(5)
2000 Vuelta Roberto Heras 21 0.54 469% 70:26:14 2933 41.640 2:33 13:14 3:27:23 Roberto Heras Hernandez(1) Carlos Sastre Candil(8)
2001 Vuelta Angel Casero 17 0.40 6 74% 70:49:05 2986 42.534 0:47 10:31 3:19:16 Jose Maria Jimenez(17) Jose Maria Jimenez(17)
2002 Vuelta* Aitor Gonzalez 64% 75:13:52 3128 41.579 2:14 9:22 3:42:37 Eric Zabel(69) Aitor Osa(54)
2003 Vuelta* Roberto Heras 81% 69:31:52 2925 42.067 0:28 7:56 4:26:12 Eric Zabel(72) Felix Cardenas(8)
2004 Vuelta Roberto Heras (3,2) 64% 82:07:31 2925 40.70 0:18 20:12 4:16:57 Eric Zabel (43) Felix Cardenas (29) Matthew White Comunidad Valenciana-Kelme
2005 Vuelta Denis Menchov 1 0.49 4 64% 82:07:31 2925 40.70 0:18 20:12 4:16:57 Alessandro Petacchi (89,5) Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (38) Yohann Gene Joseba Beloki Dorronsoro (194-39=155) Comunidad Valenciana
2006 Vuelta Alexander Vinokourov 42 0.31 4 72% 81:23:07 3129 38.447 1:12 11:32 3:23:05 Thor Hushovd (82) Egoi Martinez (12) Cyril Lemoine Jose Miguel Elias (150=175-25)Discovery Channel
2007 Vuelta Denis Menchov 79 77% 80:59:07 3:31 10:12 3.02.35 Daniele Bennati (64,3) Denis Menchov (1) Jesus Rosendo Prado Caisse d'Epargne
2011 Vuelta Juan Jose Cobo (3,5) 139 0.22 3 85% 84:59:31 3300 38.827 0:00:13 5:33 5:24:52 Bauke Mollema (4,0) David Moncoutie (37,1) Tom Veelers Mathieu Perget (153=177-24) Geox

Giro d'Italia

race overall winner (points rank, kom rank) prologue or
stage 1 ranking
of winner
correlation of
final rankings
to prologue
rankings
number of top
20 prologue riders
who finished in
the final GC top 20
percent
finishing
winning time distance (km) winning speed (km/h) winning margin 10th place final time gap lantern rouge time gap points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) KOM (final GC rank) Lantern Rouge Max difference,
prologue to final GC
Winning Team
2001 Giro Gilberto Simoni 50 0.36 4 76% 89:02:58 3572 40.113 7:31 14:08 3:01:17 Massimo Strazzer(37) Fredy Gonzalez(46)
2002 Giro Paolo Savoldelli 3 0.29 7 71% 89:22:42 3334 37.302 1:41 11:50 3:34:55Mario Cipollini(100) Julio Perez Cuapio(19)
2003 Giro Gilberto Simoni 29 0.25 0 58% 89:32:09 7:06 19:21 3:04:15 Gilberto Simoni(1) Fredy Gonzalez(35)
2004 Giro Damiano Cunego 54 0.30 5 82% 88:40:43 3435 38.735 2:02 7:47 4:03:22 Alessandro Petacchi(97) Fabian Wegmann(36)
2005 Giro Paulo Savoldelli 4 -0.05 1 78% 91:25:51 3465 37.855 0:28 12.33 4.26.54 Paolo Bettini (38) Jose' Rujano Guillen (3) Russel Van Hout Daniel Atienza Urendez (182=196-14)
2006 Giro Ivan Basso 13 76% 91:33:36 3528 38.54 9:18 27.34 4.34.42 Paolo Bettini (56) Juan Manuel Garate (7) Carl Naibo Phonak
2007 Giro Danilo Di Luca 2 0.54 8 72% 92.59.39 1:55 11.58 3.41.39 Alessandro Petacchi (104) Leonardo Piepoli (14) Oscar Gatto Fortunato Baliani
(140=164-20)
Saunier Duval-Prodir
2008 Giro Alberto Contador Velasco 49 72% 89.56.49 1:57 11.03 4.33.41 Daniele Bennati (70,3) Emanuele Sella (6,3) Markus Eichler CSF Group - Navigare
2009 Giro Denis Menchov 45 0.26 6 85% 86.03.11 3456.5 40.167 3:46 12:50 4:59:11 Denis Menchov (1,2) Stefano Garzelli (7,1) Evgeny Sokolov Andrey Zeits
(155=190-35)
Astana
2010 Giro Ivan Basso 37 0.16 6 71% 87.44.01 3485 39.72 1:51 14:51 4:48:55 Cadel Evans (5,1) Matthew Lloyd (50,1) Marco Corti David Arroyo
(159=161-2)
Liquigas-Doimo
2011 Giro Alberto Contador 51 0.10 2 77% 84:05:14 3497 41.59 6:10 14:10 4:49:15 Alberto Contador (1,2) Stefano Garzelli (26,0) Jos Van Emden Mikel Nieve Ituralde
(166=177-11)
Astana
race overall winner (points rank, kom rank) prologue or
stage 1 ranking
of winner
correlation of
final rankings
to prologue
rankings
number of top
20 prologue riders
who finished in
the final GC top 20
percent
finishing
winning time distance (km) winning speed (km/h) winning margin 10th place final time gap lantern rouge time gap points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) KOM (final GC rank) Lantern Rouge Max difference,
prologue to final GC
Winning Team

Notes:

The 2013, 2011, and 2008 Tours de France started with a road stage.

The 2011, 2008, and 2007 Giros started with team time trials.

The 2006 Vuelta started with a 7.2 km team time trial.

The 2005 Tour de France started with a 19km time trial, rather than a short prologue time trial. I expected the correlation to be higher than what it was as a result.

The 2005 TdF Lantern Rouge is the younger brother of the 2002 TdF Lantern Rouge.

The 2002 and 2003 Vueltas started with team time trials, so I decided not to compare rankings after that stage to final GC.

The 2003 Giro started with a 210km stage, rather than a prologue.

The column of "percent finishing" is the percent of riders who completed the prologue/stage 1 that then went on to finish every stage. This might be a kind of measure of the difficulty of that particular Tour, but it's only one piece of data.

For the TdF 1995 and 1997 especially, the dots look like they are pretty much placed at random, while for 1996 and 1999 you can see a certain "correlation": higher prologue placings tended to get higher GC placings.

The data to make these plots came from the excellent site, www.cyclingnews.com. I'd love to get more years of data - let me know if you've got data to share.


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