Here's my original question:
In a stage race, how well does a rider's prologue (or first stage) placing predict the
rider's final GC placing?
Below are some calculations suggesting an answer to this question, along with
a bunch of other statistics on the Grand Tours, data that I just wanted to have
in one place.
All races are men's races; I hope to add data for women's races, as soon
as I can find a decent source.
Click on the year for a scatter plot of the
prolog (or stage 1) rankings versus the final GC rankings.
(the x-axis represents
the prologue placings, and the y-axis represents the
final GC placings).
race | overall winner (points rank, kom rank) | prologue or stage 1 ranking of winner |
correlation of final rankings to prologue rankings |
number of top 20 prologue riders who finished in the final GC top 20 |
percent finishing |
winning time | distance (km) | winning speed (km/h) | winning margin | 10th place final time gap | lantern rouge time gap | points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) | KOM (final GC rank) | Lantern Rouge | Max difference, prologue to final GC |
Winning Team |
1995 TdF | Miguel Indurain (3,4) | 35 | 0.21 | 0 | 61% | 92:44:59 | 3535 | 39.2 | 4:35 | 18:50 | 3:36:26 | Laurent Jalabert(4) | Richard Virenque(9) | |||
1996 TdF | Bjarne Riis (?,2) | 6 | 0.49 | 7 | 65% | 95:57:16 | 3753 | 39.2 | 1:41 | 11:53 | 3:49:52 | Eric Zabel(82) | Richard Virenque(3) | |||
1997 TdF | Jan Ullrich (6,2) | 2 | 0.14 | 5 | 70% | 100:30:35 | 3942 | 39.2 | 9:09 | 32:26 | 4:26:09 | Eric Zabel(66) | Richard Virenque(2) | Philippe Gaumont | Angel Casero (147=176-29) | |
1998 TdF | Marco Pantani (10,2) | 181 | 0.26 | 4 | 51% | 92:49:46 | 3850 | 40.08 | 3:21 | 17:39 | 3:12:15 | Eric Zabel(62) | Christophe Rinero(4) | Damion Nazon | Marco Pantani (180=181-1) | |
1999 TdF | Lance Armstrong (12,5) | 1 | 0.42 | 7 | 78% | 91:32:16 | 3687 | 40.3 | 7:37 | 23:10 | 3:19:09 | Eric Zabel(89) | Richard Virenque(8) | Jacky Durand | Paolo Lanfranchi (141=159-18) | |
2000 TdF | Lance Armstrong (11,6) | 2 | 0.41 | 5 | 72% | 92:33:08 | 3662 | 39.55 | 6:02 | 18:25 | 3:46:37 | Eric Zabel(61) | Santiago Botero(7) | Olivier Perraudeau | Javier Otxoa (150=163-13) | |
2001 TdF | Lance Armstrong (6,4) | 3 | 0.30 | 7 | 76% | 86:17:28 | 3453 | 40.02 | 6:44 | 22:38 | 3:52:17 | Eric Zabel(96,3) | Laurent Jalabert(19) | Jimmy Casper | Francois Simon (145=151-6) | Kelme |
2002 TdF | Lance Armstrong (6,4) | 1 | 0.49 | 8 | 81% | 82:05:12 | 3278 | 39.88 | 7:17 | 19:05 | 3:35:52 | Robbie McEwen(130,1) | Laurent Jalabert(42) | Igor Flores | Alexandre Botcharov (132=163-31) | ONCE |
2003 TdF | Lance Armstrong (15,3) | 6 | 0.23 | 5 | 75% | 83:36:02 | 3427 | 40.94 | 1:01 | 19:15 | 4:48:35 | Baden Cooke(140,1) | Richard Virenque(16,1) | Hans De Clercq | Manuel Beltran (160=175-15) | CSC |
2004 TdF | Lance Armstrong (8,2) | 2 | 0.25 | 6 | 79% | 83:41:12 | 3391 | 40.6 | 6:19 | 22:54 | 3:55:49 | Robbie McEwen(122,2) | Richard Virenque(15,1) | Jimmy Casper | Richard Virenque (159=174-15) | T-Mobile |
2005 TdF | Lance Armstrong (8,3) | 2 | 0.26 | 8 | 82% | 86:15:02 | 3593 | 41.7 | 4:40 | 16:04 | 4:20:24 | Thor Hushovd(116,0) | Michael Rasmussen(7,1) | Iker Flores | Michael Rasmussen (167=174-7) | T-Mobile |
2006 TdF | Floyd Landis (10,2) | 9 | 0.26 | 4 | 79% | 89:39:30 | 3567 | 40.8 | 0:57 | 15:07 | 4:02:01 | Robbie McEwen(116,3) | Michael Rasmussen(18,1) | Wim Vansevenant | Michael Rasmussen (140=158-18) | T-Mobile |
2007 TdF | Alberto Contador (10,2) | 15 | 0.30 | 4 | 75% | 91.00.26 | 3547 | 39.0 | 0:23 | 14:25 | 3:52:54 | Tom Boonen(119,2) | Mauricio Soler(11,1) | Wim Vansevenant | David Arroyo (140=158-18) | Discovery |
2008 TdF | Carlos Sastre (22,2) | 14 | 0.48 | 8 | 81% | 87.52.52 | 3559 | 40.5 | 0:58 | 9:05 | 3:55:45 | Oscar Freire (70,1) | Bernhard Kohl (3,0) | Wim Vansevenant | Koos Moerenhout (123=157-34) | CSC |
2009 TdF | Alberto Contador (3,9) | 2 | 0.51 | 9 | 87% | 85.48.35 | 3459.5 | 40.31 | 4:11 | 14:25 | 4:16:27 | Thor Hushovd (106,1) | Franco Pellizotti (37,0) | Yauheni Hutarovich | Alexandre Botcharov (139=157-18) | Astana |
2010 TdF | Alberto Contador (11,4) | 6 | 0.22 | 5 | 87% | 91.58.48 | 3642 | 39.6 | 0:39 | 12:02 | 4:27:03 | Alessandro Petacchi (150,2) | Anthony Charteau (44,0) | Adriano Malori | Adriano Malori (158=170-12) | Radio Shack |
2011 TdF | Cadel Evans (4,4) | 2 | 0.34 | 6 | 84% | 86:12:22 | 3430 | 39.8 | 1:34 | 10:11 | 3:57:43 | Mark Cavendish (130,5) | Samuel Sanchez (6,1) | Fabio Sabatini | Egoi Martinez (151=185-34) | Garmin-Cervelo |
2012 TdF | Bradley Wiggins (6,15) | 2 | 0.23 | 7 | 77% | 87:34:47 | 3496.9 | 39.9 | 3:21 | 17:17 | 3:57:36 | Peter Sagan (42,3) | Thomas Voeckler (26,2) | Jimmy Engoulvent | Egoi Martinez (166=183-17) | RadioShack-Nissan |
2013 TdF | Chris Froome (9,2) | 41 | 0.15 | 0 | 86% | 83:56:40 | 3404 | 40.5 | 4:20 | 17:39 | 4:27:55 | Peter Sagan (82,3) | Nairo Quintana (2,1) | Svein Tuft | Bauke Mollema (189=195-6) | Team Saxo-Tinkoff |
race | overall winner (points rank, kom rank) | prologue or stage 1 ranking of winner |
correlation of final rankings to prologue rankings |
number of top 20 prologue riders who finished in the final GC top 20 |
percent finishing |
winning time | distance (km) | winning speed (km/h) | winning margin | 10th place final time gap | lantern rouge time gap | points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) | KOM (final GC rank) | Lantern Rouge | Max difference, prologue to final GC |
Winning Team |
1999 Vuelta | Jan Ullrich | 21 | 0.09 | 2 | 61% | 89:52:03 | 3548 | 39.488 | 4:15 | 18:15 | 4:14:44 | Frank Vandenbroucke(12) | Jose M. Jimenez(5) | |||
2000 Vuelta | Roberto Heras | 21 | 0.54 | 4 | 69% | 70:26:14 | 2933 | 41.640 | 2:33 | 13:14 | 3:27:23 | Roberto Heras Hernandez(1) | Carlos Sastre Candil(8) | |||
2001 Vuelta | Angel Casero | 17 | 0.40 | 6 | 74% | 70:49:05 | 2986 | 42.534 | 0:47 | 10:31 | 3:19:16 | Jose Maria Jimenez(17) | Jose Maria Jimenez(17) | |||
2002 Vuelta* | Aitor Gonzalez | 64% | 75:13:52 | 3128 | 41.579 | 2:14 | 9:22 | 3:42:37 | Eric Zabel(69) | Aitor Osa(54) | ||||||
2003 Vuelta* | Roberto Heras | 81% | 69:31:52 | 2925 | 42.067 | 0:28 | 7:56 | 4:26:12 | Eric Zabel(72) | Felix Cardenas(8) | ||||||
2004 Vuelta | Roberto Heras (3,2) | 64% | 82:07:31 | 2925 | 40.70 | 0:18 | 20:12 | 4:16:57 | Eric Zabel (43) | Felix Cardenas (29) | Matthew White | Comunidad Valenciana-Kelme | ||||
2005 Vuelta | Denis Menchov | 1 | 0.49 | 4 | 64% | 82:07:31 | 2925 | 40.70 | 0:18 | 20:12 | 4:16:57 | Alessandro Petacchi (89,5) | Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (38) | Yohann Gene | Joseba Beloki Dorronsoro (194-39=155) | Comunidad Valenciana |
2006 Vuelta | Alexander Vinokourov | 42 | 0.31 | 4 | 72% | 81:23:07 | 3129 | 38.447 | 1:12 | 11:32 | 3:23:05 | Thor Hushovd (82) | Egoi Martinez (12) | Cyril Lemoine | Jose Miguel Elias (150=175-25) | Discovery Channel |
2007 Vuelta | Denis Menchov | 79 | 77% | 80:59:07 | 3:31 | 10:12 | 3.02.35 | Daniele Bennati (64,3) | Denis Menchov (1) | Jesus Rosendo Prado | Caisse d'Epargne | |||||
2011 Vuelta | Juan Jose Cobo (3,5) | 139 | 0.22 | 3 | 85% | 84:59:31 | 3300 | 38.827 | 0:00:13 | 5:33 | 5:24:52 | Bauke Mollema (4,0) | David Moncoutie (37,1) | Tom Veelers | Mathieu Perget (153=177-24) | Geox |
race | overall winner (points rank, kom rank) | prologue or stage 1 ranking of winner |
correlation of final rankings to prologue rankings |
number of top 20 prologue riders who finished in the final GC top 20 |
percent finishing |
winning time | distance (km) | winning speed (km/h) | winning margin | 10th place final time gap | lantern rouge time gap | points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) | KOM (final GC rank) | Lantern Rouge | Max difference, prologue to final GC |
Winning Team |
2001 Giro | Gilberto Simoni | 50 | 0.36 | 4 | 76% | 89:02:58 | 3572 | 40.113 | 7:31 | 14:08 | 3:01:17 | Massimo Strazzer(37) | Fredy Gonzalez(46) | |||
2002 Giro | Paolo Savoldelli | 3 | 0.29 | 7 | 71% | 89:22:42 | 3334 | 37.302 | 1:41 | 11:50 | 3:34:55 | Mario Cipollini(100) | Julio Perez Cuapio(19) | |||
2003 Giro | Gilberto Simoni | 29 | 0.25 | 0 | 58% | 89:32:09 | 7:06 | 19:21 | 3:04:15 | Gilberto Simoni(1) | Fredy Gonzalez(35) | |||||
2004 Giro | Damiano Cunego | 54 | 0.30 | 5 | 82% | 88:40:43 | 3435 | 38.735 | 2:02 | 7:47 | 4:03:22 | Alessandro Petacchi(97) | Fabian Wegmann(36) | |||
2005 Giro | Paulo Savoldelli | 4 | -0.05 | 1 | 78% | 91:25:51 | 3465 | 37.855 | 0:28 | 12.33 | 4.26.54 | Paolo Bettini (38) | Jose' Rujano Guillen (3) | Russel Van Hout | Daniel Atienza Urendez (182=196-14) | |
2006 Giro | Ivan Basso | 13 | 76% | 91:33:36 | 3528 | 38.54 | 9:18 | 27.34 | 4.34.42 | Paolo Bettini (56) | Juan Manuel Garate (7) | Carl Naibo | Phonak | |||
2007 Giro | Danilo Di Luca | 2 | 0.54 | 8 | 72% | 92.59.39 | 1:55 | 11.58 | 3.41.39 | Alessandro Petacchi (104) | Leonardo Piepoli (14) | Oscar Gatto | Fortunato Baliani (140=164-20) |
Saunier Duval-Prodir | ||
2008 Giro | Alberto Contador Velasco | 49 | 72% | 89.56.49 | 1:57 | 11.03 | 4.33.41 | Daniele Bennati (70,3) | Emanuele Sella (6,3) | Markus Eichler | CSF Group - Navigare | |||||
2009 Giro | Denis Menchov | 45 | 0.26 | 6 | 85% | 86.03.11 | 3456.5 | 40.167 | 3:46 | 12:50 | 4:59:11 | Denis Menchov (1,2) | Stefano Garzelli (7,1) | Evgeny Sokolov | Andrey Zeits (155=190-35) |
Astana |
2010 Giro | Ivan Basso | 37 | 0.16 | 6 | 71% | 87.44.01 | 3485 | 39.72 | 1:51 | 14:51 | 4:48:55 | Cadel Evans (5,1) | Matthew Lloyd (50,1) | Marco Corti | David Arroyo (159=161-2) |
Liquigas-Doimo |
2011 Giro | Alberto Contador | 51 | 0.10 | 2 | 77% | 84:05:14 | 3497 | 41.59 | 6:10 | 14:10 | 4:49:15 | Alberto Contador (1,2) | Stefano Garzelli (26,0) | Jos Van Emden | Mikel Nieve Ituralde (166=177-11) |
Astana |
race | overall winner (points rank, kom rank) | prologue or stage 1 ranking of winner |
correlation of final rankings to prologue rankings |
number of top 20 prologue riders who finished in the final GC top 20 |
percent finishing |
winning time | distance (km) | winning speed (km/h) | winning margin | 10th place final time gap | lantern rouge time gap | points winner (final GC rank,stage wins) | KOM (final GC rank) | Lantern Rouge | Max difference, prologue to final GC |
Winning Team |
The 2013, 2011, and 2008 Tours de France started with a road stage.
The 2011, 2008, and 2007 Giros started with team time trials.
The 2006 Vuelta started with a 7.2 km team time trial.
The 2005 Tour de France started with a 19km time trial, rather than a short prologue time trial. I expected the correlation to be higher than what it was as a result.
The 2005 TdF Lantern Rouge is the younger brother of the 2002 TdF Lantern Rouge.
The 2002 and 2003 Vueltas started with team time trials, so I decided not to compare rankings
after that stage to final GC.
The 2003 Giro started with a 210km stage, rather than a prologue.
The column of "percent finishing" is the percent of riders
who completed the prologue/stage 1 that then went on to finish every stage.
This might be a kind of measure of the difficulty
of that particular Tour, but it's only one piece of data.
For the TdF 1995 and 1997 especially, the dots look like
they are pretty much placed at random, while for 1996 and 1999
you can see a certain "correlation": higher prologue placings
tended to get higher GC placings.
The data to make these plots came from the excellent site,
www.cyclingnews.com.
I'd love to get more years of data - let me know if you've got data
to share.